Why Ethiopia Needs a Census, Now More than Ever

Ethiopia's last census was conducted in 2007. Since then, the country has fought a civil war, resettled millions of displaced people, seen its cities nearly double in population, and changed the boundaries of entire regional states. Yet all planning decisions, budget allocations, and development targets still rest on estimates based on data that is nearly two decades old. A census is overdue in any technical sense; given what Ethiopia has been through, it is a national emergency.

A Brief History of Counting Ethiopians

Ethiopia has conducted only three national censuses in its modern history. The first was carried out in 1984 during the Derg regime, covering only 81 percent of the population due to active security conflicts across multiple regions. The second and third censuses followed in 1994 and 2007, respectively, under the EPRDF government. The country's constitution explicitly requires a census every ten years. Neither deadline was met cleanly. The 2007 census was itself supposed to have taken place in 2004, three years earlier. The enumeration was conducted in two phases to accommodate the remote pastoral areas of Afar and Somali regions.

A fourth census has been in preparation for over a decade. Preparations officially commenced in 2015, with a 3.5 billion birr budget secured from both the Ethiopian government and donors, and the count was slated for 2019. It did not happen. After initial delays due to domestic security concerns, the 2020 rescheduling was upended by COVID-19. Then the Tigray war broke out in November 2020, consuming the country for two years and rendering any national enumeration impossible. As part of a statistical development program running from 2024 to 2026, preparations have reportedly resumed, but no census has yet taken place.

The Data Void Ethiopia Is Living In

The practical consequence of this delay is that nobody in Ethiopia knows, with any real confidence, how many people live there, where they live, or what their needs are.

Ethiopia's own statistical agency estimated the population at 109.4 million in 2024, while UNFPA puts the figure at nearly 130 million and the CIA World Factbook at 118.5 million, with some sources going as high as 135.5 million. A gap of over 25 million people between official estimates is not a rounding error. It reflects a fundamental absence of ground-truth data.

The problem is compounded by how dramatically the country has changed since 2007. Ethiopia's urban population expanded from 10.8 million in 2002 to 28 million in 2022 (still an estimate), a growth of 160 percent, making it one of the most rapidly urbanizing countries in the world. Cities like Hawassa, Bahir Dar, and Adama have grown enormously, and entirely new administrative units have been created. UNHCR reported more than 5.5 million internally displaced persons as of March 2022, a population movement that was never captured by any enumeration. The 2007 census data that governments, aid agencies, and planners continue to use reflects a country that, in many ways, no longer exists.

What Ethiopia Loses Without a Census

Budget Allocation Distorted by Old Data

Federal budget transfers to regional states in Ethiopia are calculated, in part, based on population figures. When those figures are projections extrapolated from a 2007 baseline, regions that have grown fast receive less than they need. Ethiopian experts have noted that population issues are politicized over regional budget allocations, contributing directly to delays in data collection. The politicization and the data gap feed each other.

A census provides governments with the demographic detail needed to allocate resources, target services, and plan infrastructure proportionally. Without that foundation, administrative boundaries and resource flows remain anchored to a demographic map that has been overtaken by events.

Health Services Targeted at the Wrong Populations

Public health planning depends on knowing where people are and who they are. The DRC faced serious challenges implementing health policy because data relied on 1984 census figures that did not reflect modern conditions. Ethiopia risks the same fate. Vaccination campaigns, maternal health programs, and hospital construction all require knowing population density and age distribution at the woreda level.

Population censuses and surveys are essential for measuring mortality and identifying health facilities that lack necessary resources. Without a current census, Ethiopia's planners are making billion-birr decisions about health infrastructure based on estimates that predate the Tigray war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and two decades of urban migration.

Schools Built Where Children No Longer Live

The same logic applies to education. Ethiopia's school construction, teacher deployment, and education budgets all use population denominators. If those denominators reflect 2007 rather than 2026, the country will chronically under-serve the children who have moved and over-invest in areas that have emptied out. Addis Ababa's population grew by 44 percent between 2007 and 2023, by conservative estimates, meaning the education infrastructure mismatch in the capital region alone is substantial.

Disaster Response Without a Map of the Vulnerable

Census data is used in disaster planning, response, and risk reduction. It provides information on population density, vulnerability, and infrastructure, vital for identifying areas at risk during floods and other extreme events, and for locating vulnerable groups such as the elderly or people with disabilities. Ethiopia is highly exposed to climate shocks, including drought, flooding, and locust outbreaks. Without a census, humanitarian organizations operate on guesswork.

The SDG Accountability Gap

Ethiopia has committed to the Sustainable Development Goals. Tracking progress on poverty, education, health, and gender equality all require reliable population data disaggregated by region, sex, and age. Only 20 African countries have conducted censuses in the past ten years, undermining the ability to monitor SDG 17.18 at the national level. Ethiopia's 18-year gap makes it one of the most extreme cases on the continent.

The Challenges Are Real, But Not Insurmountable

None of this is to pretend that conducting a census in Ethiopia is easy. The country covers over 1.1 million square kilometers, has more than 80 languages, includes remote pastoral communities, and has seen significant territorial change and conflict since 2007. Procedural questions remain about how to handle ethnic identification, which has historically been contentious, and how to enumerate millions of internally displaced persons and cross-border refugees.

Technology offers real assistance. Digital enumeration tools, satellite imagery, and mobile data collection can lower costs and extend reach. The 2007 census cost approximately $74 million, around one dollar per person, a manageable sum for a country that has committed billions to infrastructure development and launched a new stock exchange in 2025.

The Case for Acting Now

Ethiopia is at an inflection point. The Tigray peace agreement, signed in November 2022, opened the possibility of enumerating the north for the first time in years. The country has formally committed to a census through its 2024–2026 statistical program. The population is young, growing, and urbanizing rapidly. Every additional year without a census means another year of misallocated resources, under-served communities, and policy built on fiction.

The delayed census and outdated policy have already created significant challenges for planning and development, according to Ethiopian economists and state ministers. The cost of continued delay is not abstract. It shows up in schools without enough classrooms, clinics without enough staff, budgets that reward the wrong regions, and development plans premised on a country that no longer exists.